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I.M. Jack – The EP Sophisms (1)

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1. The “Earthquake”

This is the first in a series of pill-sized reflections on the outcome of this year’s EP elections. We kick off with Joseph Muscat’s Labour and query their cause for celebration. The figures are such that would not justify any excessive jubilation. PL 2009 has less votes (head to head) than MLP 2008. There is no doubt that PL has an absolute majority of votes cast with numbers unprecedented in any kind of election in Malta.

The question is does this amount to an “earthquake” or false alarm? J’accuse thinks that the votes that count stayed home. How sure are we, for example, that the AD votes of 2004 went to PL and did not stay at home? Who can say that for a certainty?

The Haiku

joe muscat ‘s earthquake

less votes than sant got last year

not earth shattering

sophism

1. a specious argument for displaying ingenuity in reasoning or for deceiving someone.
2. any false argument or fallacy. — sophister, n.sophistic, adj.
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For Better or For Worse

Prime Minister Lawrence Gonzi said this evening that he viewed the result of the European Parliament elections as “worse than we wished for but better than expected.”

Once the Labour euphoria of interpreting this result as a vote of no-confidence in the nationalist government has abated we might be able to examine these election results from a European perspective – particularly by examining how the Maltese parties fared when compared with their European counterparts.

The biggest Europe wide surprise is that the European Socialists did not make the gains that they had been widely predicted to obtain. It would seem that the victory in Malta for the Labour is rather anomalous and goes against the general current. In fact as news of more results come in a general trend of “victories” for centre-right parties is coming surprisingly into view. It had been widely expected that centre-right parties and governments would bear the brunt of the public backlash to all the ills associated with the economic crunch (see local Labour campaign blaming it all on Gonzi) but none of this seems to have materialised.

From Berlusconi’s Forza Italia to Sarkozy’s UMP, incumbent governments seem to have registered surprising victory after surprising victory. The same has happened in Germany, Poland, and most of the eastern 10 as centre-right parties (mostly members of the EPP) grabbed a lion’s share of the votes.

All of which puts Gonzi’s quote of “better than expected” into a harsh perspective. While other sites are already busy conjuring up a blame game pointing their fingers at the Green campaign or ungrateful voters it would seem that the PN apparatchiks might be about to repeat the same analytical mistakes they rushed too after last year’s relative majority victory. 

Judging by the European picture, Gonzi’s party main excuse of having to bear the brunt of the disgruntled vote does not hold water. Parties in a similar position as Gonzi’s PN fared much much better than the party of Taste and Flair. They did not point their fingers at irritant green parties and track records. They went out there and won their battle for seats – probably because they offered a clear idea of what their particular corner of the EPP rainbow would be representing. 

While we sit back crossing fingers that our preferred candidates get elected to Brussels it might be worth a while to reflect on this point.

ADDENDUM: Another interesting point to reflect upon is that in some  countries where the centre-right dominated the elections, the Green parties and the Extreme Right (anti-immigrant movements) also gained seats. AD’s downsurge MIGHT be read in this light too (obviously among many other factors). Their obvious veering to the left reduced the attractiveness of the party as a stand-alone vote and to a certain extent might have dented the credibility of its potential as a “watchdog” representative. AD, like PN, might have also suffered from the absentee vote. Which goes to show that when the non-fanatics  or floaters stay at home the two parties that have much to lose are PN and AD. AD might need to learn that flirting with Muscat’s fictitious left gets you nowhere.

More info here:

BBC NEWS

DEUTSCHE WELLE

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Status Quo Ante

J’accuse was right. Nobody or practically nobody voted the J’accuse way. There, that settles that one. What else happened?

Disillusioned nationalists stayed at home. Turnout was around 79% and Labour got around 57% of the vote of the people who bothered to turn out. Of those who bothered to turn out it seems that the main incentive was to sing the Labour song of a New Government is coming – the political version of a Milan Supporter thinking his team is the best in the world because it wins a summer friendly. It can be safely assumed that the nationalist vote is made up of the hardcore, flag-waving, kerchief-carrying, rosary-bearing herd that had been ushered to the polling booths by the fire and brimstone spinmeisters.

The voters who did turn out to vote had no clue what they were voting for. The hijacking of the campaign by Muscat’s obsession with a trial run national election and the nationalist’s playing into his arms in this respect means that we still know jack shit about what the people think the ideal European parliament candidate is about. The six seats will in all probability be divided among the parties that give you unaccountable, push-button blundering candidates who do not give two hoots about keeping the Maltese Parliament in check or filling the legislative lacunae left by PLPN interests. 

AD’s campaign fell through the floor. With the stakes of the campaign being set elsewhere AD were left in the sad situation of being compared to balloon pusher Lowell. As we had said after last national elections, AD would be better off investing time and money in a very local kind of programme based on the constitutional issue of representation. 

There has been absolutely no shift in the way people think and vote in the Maltese islands. A nationalist party privately in shambles might have huge fault lines exposed in the coming weeks. This time it might be impossible to go on sweeping the evident lack of values and backbone under the carpet. Which will only mean double the work for the independent media and blogs intent on doing the work of an absent and disillusioned opposition. Our oppostion party might be about to don the illusional crown of a majority that gives it everything but an absolute certainty of government in four years time. 

Timeo europeos et dona ferentes.

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J'accuse: Xatrambatra

bert4j_090607

This article and accompanying Bertoon appeared on today’s edition of The Malta Independent on Sunday.

I recently learnt of a very special old Maltese “gadget” when chatting with a Maltese linguist who works at the European Parliament. For a while I thought he was pulling my leg but a quick check n Serracino Inglott’s Il-Miklem Malti (Maltese Dictionary) proved otherwise. I had been told that this “device” consisted of a dried elongated fruit (pumpkin or squash) hollowed out and with two orifices on opposite ends. Some versions of this instrument could also be made of metal. Its purpose was to serve as a “fart-deviator” and would be applied to the derrière in moments of flatulent necessity.

Historians ascribe its use mainly among newly-weds as the object would serve to deviate unpleasant odours from the marital bed. Known as the ‘xatrambatra’ scholars have long debated the origins of its name (I read this on Inglott). Vassallo tends for the Sicilian “sciatara” and “matara” meaning “stromento da scorreggiare” (instrument in which to fart) while stating that “gli antichi se ne servivano per mandar via dal letto il puzzore delle scorreggie tirandole dentro tal stromento e tenendolo colla sua bocca fuor del letto il che facevano specialmente i novelli sposi”.

Preca seems to tend for a Hebrew version of the word “Xatar” and is joined by other venerable linguists in the disquisitions on the venerable subject that fills two columns of il-Miklem. Interestingly, one of the alternate explanations of the origins of the word is a probable Latin root “flatus matula” – literally ‘admirer of flatulence’ – which makes the gadget sound more like an early whooping cushion for enthusiasts of the gaseous science than a deviator of unpleasant smells in the bedroom. If, as I believe, the linguistic side of the xatrambatra has piqued your interest then I recommend you get your hands on the Miklem pages in question.

Personally, being an avid Andrea Camilleri reader, I was sufficiently happy to recognise a similarity between “sciatra” and the Sicilian word “sciauro” (smell) not to be bothered with the exact derivation of the name of the bent instrument that could (occasionally) serve as an extended tail. In the end I was simply thrilled by this new discovery – a perfect example of a maltese kluge if ever there was one (a kluge is an engineering term describing a solution that is clumsy or inelegant yet surprisingly effective). Not that I have tried it of course but I got the general idea.

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DCG: Fear Factor 80s

Malta’s internet Gossip Column today reminded me of those Top Trump Horror Cards that we used to play at school. You know, the ones with Dracula, Frankenstein and Werewolf.

J’accuse had pointed out that the nationalist campaign and the (master)minds behind seemed to have no other ammunition than fear and taste to get people to vote for the pick’n’mix crew they presented at the polls (who I confirmed are busy fighting an internecine battle that might have explosive consequences in the near future… ah the pleasures of a scoop).

Well it seems that two men nicknamed “the whore” and “the pussycat” have played into nationalist expectations and provided the juicy bits of news that Gossip Columns direly need. So it seems that people who stayed at home are being repaid for their insolence in not going out in droves to votes for Tedesco Triccas and Co by the return of the monsters of 1980. All we need now is “Run Rabbit Run” played on TVM sometime tomorrow.

Of course we will still be waiting to hear a bit more about candidate expenses, Stefano Mallia’s jolly email and more…. but that’s after we have got our kicks hearing about the owl and the pussycat.

Meanwhile I weas lucky enough to witness a 95 year old lady just ahead of me in the short queue at the polling booth. She was being lovingly instructed as to who to vote for..

-Ghidilhom li trid tivvota ghal Roberta

– Min?

-Roberta

-ehe ok

It’s sad. Whether they are dragged to vote for red, blue or green candidates it is never nice to see old people who very evidently haven’t the slightest clue of whatis going on being dragged to the booth for the sake of our ridiculous fanaticism.

J’accuse signs out here. The next missive will be from Luxembourg, probably tomorrow morning after the flight chartered for my ‘convenience’ at 6am takes me to the land forgotten by the sun.

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Day of Political Reflection

Reflection
Reflection

J’accuse has done its bit of political reflecting for a while now. And the conclusion of all this reflecting on the local political scene?

Easy… it sucks.

P.S. If anyone is looking for me I’m the one on the deckchair in Ghadira. :)

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